Promising Developments and Trends
US treaty negotiators insist that Americans should be dealt an easy goal of greenhouse gas control during the ongoing Kyoto Treaty negotiations - only 7 percent reduction below 1990 emission levels. (60 percent is needed.) This despite the fact that the United States is half as energy efficient as Europe and the two most energy efficient states, Massachusetts and Connecticut, are still 2/3rds as energy efficient as Switzerland.
1) The good news is that while atmospheric concentrations surged in 1998 from natural causes, worldwide carbon dioxide man-made emissions fell by a half a percent. (But 60 percent is needed.) The world economy increased by 2.5 percent. China cut its subsidies for coal, banned coal burning in homes, and achieved a 3.7 percent drop in C02 emissions while growing 7.2 percent. In industrial countries, there may be a beginning of a disconnect between C02 emissions and economic growth. Computers emit less than cars.
The two big exceptions were India and the United States. But while US C02 emissions increased 0.4 percent in 1998, economic output increased 3.9 percent, making it obvious that economic growth is possible without growth in greenhouse gas emissions. America could pledge more than a 7 percent cutback.
2) Secondly, global wind electricity generation expanded by 22 percent and solar by 16 percent per year from 1990 to 1998, while oil use expanded at less than 2 percent and that of coal not at all. The temporary collapse of the Russian, eastern European and Asian economies is part of the explanation, but competitive prices for alternative energy also contributed.
3) A third promising development is the recent rise in the price of oil which will help to discourage waste. Geologists continue to project that the non-OPEC nation output of oil will peak and begin a permanent decline starting in about two years - as oil reserves are depleted. This happened in the United States in 1973. It guarantees higher oil prices into the future as OPEC controls a larger share of production.
Goldberg's input-output study finds that a 30 percent reduction of energy use in the state of Illinois would have no adverse effect on their economy. Such a program would produce 59,000 additional jobs, and a $1.6 billion increase in wage and salary income by the year 2015. (It does require an investment of 10 percent of the state's current annual energy bill, or an average of $2.2 billion a year.) Most independently funded studies reach similar conclusions.
Of particular interest is a German study sponsored by Greenpeace that there is no competitive loss in going it alone. Thomas Worm proposes to start with a 7 percent tax on energy and add an additional 7 percent each year for fifteen years. West German energy bills would rise about 4.5 percent in the first year to a total 58 percent higher within the space of ten years.
The tax would be recycled to reduce other taxes to make it revenue neutral - such as the social insurance tax that discourages employment. The study found that within 10 years, more than 600,000 additional jobs would be created. Germany would experience only a small loss in consumer incomes and a slight compression of profit margins, but GNP remains the same.
And so unilateral action pays off for an economy. The findings suggests that any State or local government could make a greenhouse gas pledge, adopt a revenue neutral energy tax or other programs, and come out ahead. Daylit schools would be a good start.
Sources:
- Hitelman, Bette, Case grows for climate change:, C&EN (Aug. 9,1999)
- Bunyard, Peter, "How climate change could spiral out of control", The Ecologist, 29/2 (March-April 1999)
- Worldwatch, Vital Signs 1999. Washington DC
- Global Environmental Change Report, "Focus report, 1998 global C)2 emissions decline while concentrations jump", II/ 15 (Aug. 13, 1999)
- Pearce, Fred, "Richer and cleaner, emissions are falling as the global economy surges ahead", New Scientist (Aug. 7 1999)
- Pearce, Fred, "Dry future:, New Scientist (July 10, 1999)
- Simmons, Matthew, R. & David Purcell, "Depletion: the forgotten factor in supply and demand", Offshore (Feb. 1999)
- Monasterky, Richard, "Against the tide, Venices long war with rising water", Science News 156 (July 24,1999)
- Hecht, Jeff, "The big thaw", New Scientist (April 17, 1999)
- Taylor, Kendrick, "Rapid climate change", American Scientist 87 (July - Aug. 1999)
- Goldberg, Marshall et al, "Energy Efficiency and Economic Development in Illinois", Am. Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy, Wash, DC (Dec. 1998)
- Worm, Thomas et al, "Ecological tax reform - panacea or job-killer" in Greenpeace
- e.V. an Dentsches Institute fur Wirtschaftforschung (DIW), The Price of Energy. Dartmouth, Brookfield, Vt. (1997)
- Environmental Defense Fund, "Hot nights in the city; global warning, sea-level risk and the New York Metropolitan Region", www.edf.org
Violent Crime Linked to Toxics Exposures Typical of US Environment
In a previous newsletter, we reported on the findings of Roger Masters of Dartmouth College, that exposure to manganese, lead and alcohol account for as much of violent crime in the United States as social factors.
1) Manganese, Lead & Alcohol: He found that counties with industrial manganese releases, with industrial lead releases, and with above normal alcohol consumption averaged 920 violent crimes per 100,000 persons versus 216 violent crimes for counties without such exposures.
Masters suggests that recent falls in violent crime rates in the United States are not due to better policing - though the police find it politic to take credit, but simply stem from the elimination of lead from gasoline some years ago. We are now seeing the first cohort of youths not exposed to high lead levels in the neonatal or infant period. And new studies confirm his suggestion.
2) Smoking During Pregnancy: Several studies indicate that maternal smoking during pregnancy increases the risk of persistent criminal behavior among adult male offspring. Combined with other social factors, a study from northern Finland, for example, found that smoking is associated with a 14 fold increase in adult male violent and persistent criminal behavior.
3) Farm Chemicals in the Groundwater: And a recent study by Warren Porter finds that male mice exposed to a mixture of the insecticide aldicarb, the herbicide atrazine, and the fertilizer nitrate in drinking water at levels found typically in groundwater in many areas are more aggressive, and show changes of thyroid hormone levels and loss of immune response.
The individual pesticides did not produce these problems. It was the mixture of either or both pesticides and nitrates producing the effects. Yet, the Environmental Protection Agency tests pesticides individually without concern about interactions.
- Masters, Roger D et al, "Environmental pollution, neurotoxicity and criminal violence", in J. Rose, Ed. Environmental - Toxicology: Current Developments. Gordon and Breach Pub., Amsterdam, The Netherlands (1997)
- Rasanen, Pirkko et al, "Maternal smoking during pregnancy and risk of criminal behavior..." Am. J. Psychiatry 156/6 (June 1999)
- Porter, Warren, P. et al, "Endocrine, immune and behavioral effects of aldicarb..atrazine..and nitrate..mixtures of groundwater concentrations", Toxicology and Industrial Health 15 (1999)
Words of Wisdom About Globalization
"How citizenship will fare in an age of weakening nation-states - so far the strongest protectors of the rights and liberties of citizens - is one of the great questions of our time."
Tolson, Jay, "Of kings and commoners", US News & World Report (Aug. 16-23, 1999)
Some of our programs, after years of work, are coming close to fruition. Thanks to our members for allowing us to persist with our program.
Chesapeake Ten Thousand
We are sponsoring Tom Wisner, long-time singer about the Chesapeake Bay to raise money to cut a recording for the Smithsonian Institution. His most popular song was Chesapeake Born - Chesapeake Free.
Aluminum in Food and Use of Aluminum Containers or Cooking Utensils Linked to 8.6 Fold Increase in Alzheimer's Risk
The first published study of food with aluminum additives and Alzheimer's finds a link. Rogers and Simon found that residents of the Loretto Geriatric Center in Syracuse who consumed foods containing high levels of aluminum additives, or food cooked or stored in aluminum containers had an 8.6 fold increase in AD risk. (This is after adjustment for body mass, family history of AD, and prior history of head injury.)
While the sample size was small, the category of pancakes, waffles, biscuits, muffins, cornbread, and corn tortillas achieved a correlation of infinity (all got Alzheimer's) with a P = 0.025. Baking powder constituted with aluminum is the source of the metal in these foods. (It has been shown that Alzheimer's patients have a chronically elevated blood aluminum.)
A decade of scientific study has uncovered many of the biological mechanisms by which aluminum promotes Alzheimer's. A recent study by Lukiw of Louisiana State finds that aluminum at the elevated levels found in the brains of Alzheimer's patients impairs the capacity of brain DNA in mammals to read out genetic information. This would lead to the death of the neurons.
In 1995, the International Aluminum network of independent scientists was formed - with headquarters at the University of Padova, Italy. They and others have made good progress in mapping out the effects of aluminum on the brain.
Working with Canadian scientists, we are now in our tenth year of work to persuade the Environmental Protection Agency to restrict drinking water aluminum to prevent Alzheimer's and elderly mental impairment. Eighteen studies now link aluminum in drinking water to Alzheimer's and elderly mental impairment. The Assistant Administrator of EPA wrote us months ago that the Agency plans to spend another 10 to 20 years studying aluminum, rather than acting.
But a final decision has not been made. We are presently talking with lawyers about a court suit under the Safe Drinking Water Act, and have also corresponded with manufacturers of glass, plastic, and steel beverage and food containers. Cola drinks sold in aluminum cans have been shown to pick up high levels
of aluminum contamination, despite the plastic coating on the inside of the cans. An advertising program concerning the safety of aluminum cans would go far in driving the metal out of the beverage container market.
- Rogers, Mary AM and David 0. Simon, "A preliminary study of dietary aluminum intake and risk of Alzheimer's disease", Age and Aging 28 (1999)
- Lukiw, Walter J et al, "Run-on-gene transcription in human neocortical nuclei", J of Molecular Neuroscience 11 (1998)
Maui Tomorrow Example of Successful Local Visioning Programs
Local and state governments offer practical opportunities for change, which is why we are focusing our global warming campaign at the state and local level. In Maryland, for example, there is not a daylit school or solar collector to be seen anywhere. A good way to make progress locally is with community visioning.
Maui Tomorrow is a private group established several years ago to try to save their Hawaiian Island from over-development and building that threatens the environment, beaches, living quality and culture. They have sponsored a community visioning program to hear the recommendations of citizens, like programs of other communities across the nation. They've had success. www.maui-tomorrow.org
Partial Victory on Incinerator Pollution
It's always great to report good news. On September 8, 1999, the Commission for Environmental Cooperation (CEC), established by the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) environmental side agreements, ruled in our favor on two counts concerning the failure of the United States to enforce its law with regard to municipal and medical incinerators which are located in the United States, but whose pollution crosses the border of Canada.
We and eight other US and Canadian groups and individuals petitioned CEC in May of 1998, asking them to investigate the US Environmental Protection Agency's failure to enforce US environmental laws as well as the Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement between the US and Canada - - with regard to persistent toxic substances like mercury and dioxins being released by medical and solid waste incinerators.
This treaty was signed by President Nixon and Prime Minister Trudeau thirty years ago, but has been timidly been enforced since. The treaty protecting the Great Lakes provides for the "virtual elimination" of persistent toxic substances (like dioxins and mercury) to protect the Lakes, and "zero discharge" of the same.
The CEC agreed with us on two counts. First, they agree that the US Environmental Protection Agency has not adequately inspected incinerators. Indeed, 26 percent of US solid waste incinerators by volume have never been inspected and most of the rest only once - the initial test bum.
Secondly, they determined that EPA has failed to implement a key provision of the Clean Air Act. This requires the Administrator of EPA, whenever he or she is made aware by reports, studies or surveys by a duly constituted international agency like the International Joint Commission or CEC that air pollution from the United States "can be reasonably anticipated to endanger public health or welfare in a foreign country" to notify the Governor of the state in which such emission originates.
Such notification is considered a "finding" that requires the State to revise its air pollution plan. EPA has 30 to 60 days to respond to CEC.
Because the CEC determination is so limited and does not promote "clean industry" - or the design of industrial practices to prevent pollution rather than treat it at the end of the smokestack - we will likely end up with a court case. We have been consulting with environmental lawyers about a treaty lawsuit.
Global Phaseout of Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPS) Moves Forward
In 1962, Rachel Carson's book Silent Spring alerted the nation to damage to bird populations, the environment, and human health caused by the chlorinated insecticide DDT and other chemicals and spawned a new environmental movement.
Today, we are now eight years into the negotiations under the auspices of the United Nations Environment Programme to phase out twelve organochlorines worldwide including DDT. A legally binding global phaseout is planned for DDT, chlordane, heptachlor, aldrin, dieldrin, endrin, mirex, toxaphene, hexachloro- benzene (HCB), dioxins, furans and PCB'S.
The negotiations began at the Earth Summit in Brazil in 1992 under the title of Land Based Sources of Marine Pollution. Negotiations resumed in Geneva, September 6-11, 1999. It is expected that the treaty will be completed at a meeting in South Africa in the year 2000. It's 38 years after Rachel Carson's book.
Sticking points remain. A few countries, the World Health Organization, and the Malaria Foundation claim that they still need the insecticide DDT. But there are good alternatives such as insecticide treated bed netting, integrated pest management, and new antibiotics. A malaria vaccine appears to be quite close. The first round of vaccine will likely be similar in effectiveness to the Lyme Disease vaccine, because malaria is quite complicated.
Another sticking point is dioxin - a product of burning or heating chlorinated chemicals. The US negotiation delegation in Geneva began to fudge. They proposed a dioxin action plan, but without any actual action. Export of chlorine based industries that are primary sources of dioxin - like PVC or polyvinyl chlorine plastic plants - to developing nations is in full progress. This continues even as many European governments are beginning to ban PVC for many uses. There is growing pressure in the United States to do the same.
A new coalition of more than 180 health, religious, labor and environmental organizations, under the name of Health Care Without Harm, has petitioned the US Food and Drug Administration to warn patients and health care providers about the hazards of using PVC products containing phthalates. These are plasticizers that make the PVC plastic flexible, and have been shown to leach into IV solutions which are administered directly to patients. Adverse health effects have been demonstrated in laboratory animals at similar doses.
This same coalition has pressured hospitals to discontinue the incineration of mercury containing wastes and incineration of products that can produce dioxins. The campaign is the beginning of the end for PVC plastics in medical facilities. They'll win.
New Findings About Mercury in Children
A study from the Faroe Islands of Iceland finds that methylmercury - an organic mercury which is produced by bacterial action - produces a 14 point elevation of blood pressure levels in seven year old children exposed during pregnancy, when the mothers ate fish or whale meat with methylmercury at levels typical levels found in fish of many areas of the world, including the United States.
The Food and Drug Administration is lobbying in the Codex Alimentarius discussions sponsored by the United Nations to prevent reduction of the mercury food standards, because that might reduce the sale of fish. The standard that FDA is proposing is three times higher the level that causes this blood pressure problem in children. Strokes at the age of eight?
Health Care Without Harm, P.O. Box 6806, Falls Church, Va. 22040, www.noharm.org; Sorensen, Nicolina et al, "Prenatal methylmercury exposure as a cardiovascular risk at seven years of age", Epidemiology 10 (1999)
